ISLAMABAD – A new global health study has issued a grave warning that over 14 million additional deaths could occur by 2030 if recent cuts to United States foreign aid remain in effect, with children under the age of five among the most affected.
Published in the medical journal The Lancet, the study examines the potential humanitarian impact of the U.S. government’s decision to roll back foreign assistance programmes, particularly those previously managed by USAID. Researchers found that the abrupt withdrawal of funding from essential health services in developing countries may undo decades of progress in disease control, maternal care, and child survival.
Global Humanitarian Reversal
Between 2001 and 2021, U.S. foreign aid was credited with helping save nearly 91 million lives across low- and middle-income countries. These programmes played a vital role in reducing deaths from HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, diarrhoeal diseases, and other preventable illnesses.
However, following structural changes in U.S. foreign policy, including the scaling back of USAID programmes under the current administration’s “America First” agenda, approximately 83% of these services have reportedly been affected. The study forecasts that without corrective action, these changes could result in 14 million excess deaths by 2030—nearly one-third of whom would be children under five.
Widespread Criticism
The study has triggered global concern. Former U.S. Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush condemned the cuts, terming them “a catastrophic mistake” and “a retreat from moral leadership.” Aid organisations and global health experts have also warned that the aid rollback threatens to destabilise public health systems in vulnerable nations and could spark avoidable humanitarian crises.
Pakistan and Regional Impact
While the study takes a global view, analysts believe that countries in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa will be among the hardest hit. Pakistan, which has historically been a recipient of U.S. support in areas such as maternal health, disease prevention, and food security, could face severe strain if alternative international support is not mobilised.
Call for Global Action
As the UN prepares for a high-level financing summit in Seville, global health leaders are calling on other donor countries to fill the gap left by U.S. funding cuts. Advocates stress that continued international investment in global health remains critical to safeguarding lives and advancing human development.
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