ISLAMABAD – A new scientific study has raised alarm over the potential threat to Earth’s satellites if an asteroid were to collide with the Moon. Researchers have identified asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a 4.3 percent chance of striking the lunar surface on December 22, 2032.
According to the study, if the asteroid—estimated to be between 50 and 70 meters wide—impacts the Moon, it could release energy equivalent to five to six megatons of TNT. The collision is expected to produce a crater nearly one kilometre wide and eject massive amounts of lunar debris into space.
The researchers warned that millions of kilograms of lunar rock could be launched beyond the Moon’s gravity, with some fragments reaching low Earth orbit (LEO). This poses a significant risk to satellites, the International Space Station, and other spacecraft operating within Earth’s orbital zone.
While smaller debris would likely burn up in Earth’s atmosphere, larger fragments could collide with existing satellites or create dangerous space debris. Experts fear the situation could lead to a “Kessler syndrome”, where collisions produce more debris, increasing the likelihood of further collisions and potentially crippling orbital infrastructure.
The study highlights a growing concern that space agencies may need to extend planetary defense protocols to include the Moon. Currently, most asteroid monitoring efforts focus on Earth-bound threats, but this new research suggests that lunar impacts could have cascading effects on Earth’s orbital environment.
Scientists plan to observe asteroid 2024 YR4 again in 2028, which will help refine its projected path and determine the exact level of risk. For now, space agencies, including NASA, have confirmed that there is no immediate threat to lunar missions or installations.
However, the research underscores the importance of global space cooperation and preparedness, especially as satellite networks become increasingly vital to communications, navigation, defense, and climate monitoring.
Reported by PakTribune Science Desk
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