It is now over seven years that the occupation forces are in battle with the rag-tag Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan but despite best efforts they have been unable to defeat them. This is in spite of the fact that the US and allied forces have applied massive military force without caring for human and material losses particularly the innocent civilians. Efforts of the foreign troops are augmented by Afghan military which has been duly trained and equipped. Massive funds have also flowed in to carryout development works, human resource development and uplift of education sector to bolster the Afghan regime led by Hamid Karzai and to solidify US military base on permanent footings. The western world as well as Japan is also contributing towards the economic uplift of the country. Afghanistan has fitted into American scheme of things because of its proximity to Central Asia, China, Gulf region, Pakistan and Russia.
All-told, 42 other countries have contributed their troops to assist USA in its efforts to tame militant elements in Afghanistan. North-eastern Afghanistan is controlled by US troops, southeast by UK troops and northwest by NATO troops. Besides the military presence, six intelligence agencies are working hand and glove to weaken the resistance of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. India’s RAW in cooperation with CIA, RAM, MI-6, Mossad and German intelligence unit is also contributing a lot in carrying out sabotage and subversion activities in the region with its chief focus on Pakistan. It is investing heavily in the fields of development, economics, science, education and culture of Afghanistan in order to enhance its presence. Over a period of time it has managed to make inroads in almost all departments of Afghanistan with the help of pro-India Northern Alliance elements in Karzai regime and US patronage. It has succeeded in inculcating deep-seated hatred against Pakistan among the Afghans.
Despite such colossal efforts to bring about stability and economic prosperity in war torn Afghanistan, the results are far from satisfactory. One reason for this is prolonged devastation of the country first by Soviet Union followed by internecine infighting within the country from 1989 to 1995 and then by USA. It had also been subjected to cruel sanctions by USA from1996 onwards when the Taliban ruled the roost. USA has injected huge funds from 2002 onwards not to improve the living conditions of Afghans but to promote its own short-term interests.
After the occupation of Afghanistan in November 2001, the Taliban became a victim of aggression and injustice since they were not only removed from power without a justifiable cause but also dispossessed and thereafter fiercely hunted. Infamous Guantanamo Bay and Bagram prisons got filled with Al-Qaeda and Taliban operatives where they were subjected to horrific torture without any trials. Those who could not be netted, instead of giving up and getting consigned to the prison cells, joined hands with Al-Qaeda to fight the common enemy.
Strategists say that the base of operation must first be consolidated before venturing on external ventures. This principle of war was applicable to USA in Afghanistan since it stepped in with the aim of converting Afghanistan into a permanent military base. Bush led team of neo-cons got so carried away by the quick victory in Afghanistan that in a state of ecstasy they opened a second front in Iraq without having consolidated the gains made in Afghanistan which is against the basic tenets of strategy. A fabricated case was made to justify its invasion and occupation of Iraq in March 2003 in order to take control of its oil resources and change the map of Middle East to the liking of Israel.
Too engrossed in celebrating its easy victories, USA lent a receptive ear to its principal advisers how to go about expanding its influence and achieving its objectives in Pakistan in quick time. In its eagerness to destabilise Baluchistan and FATA with a view to making inroads into Pakistan it made its base vulnerable. This overstretching together with opening up of second front in Iraq within two years allowed the Taliban to regroup and build an alliance with Al-Qaeda and strike at the exposed base of operation of the foreign forces in southern and eastern Afghanistan from where they operated. Demographically, southern Afghanistan, which forms almost half of the country, is of Pashtun ethnicity. The fluid situation tempted other neighbours to fish in troubled waters. Instead of regaining balance through corrective measures the US on the advice of its advisers began to accuse Pakistan and drew some satisfaction by blaming Pak army and ISI for its failures.
The Taliban that had been ousted from Afghanistan and declared as a spent force, not only got regrouped, but succeeded in hitting back at the occupation forces with a vengeance. Their commander Mullah Omar is still a fugitive and is managing the affairs of the Taliban from his unknown hideout. Likewise, the leader of Al-Qaeda Osama bin Laden has so far not been nabbed in spite of massive manhunt and having combed the world. The two radical forces have joined hands to wage a joint struggle and have become more organised and stronger. The Al-Qaeda in fact has attained the status of an international organisation which commands tens of thousands of Muslim warriors with thousands of suicide bombers who have tied down American and its allied forces in the whirlpool of Iraq and Afghanistan irreversibly. In Iraq, USA alone has suffered over 4300 fatalities and nearly 26000 injured. In Afghanistan US-Nato forces have lost over 1100 soldiers of which 730 are US soldiers.
USA is spending a huge amount of $ 15 billion per month in Iraq ($500 million per day) and its hope of making profit out of Iraqi oil has proved illusive because of insecure conditions. It is spending over one billion dollars monthly in Afghanistan. The US is under $ 10 trillion national debt. The conquerors have belatedly come to realise that they have not only failed to curb militancy but also are in no position to win the war despite having sunk colossal amount in fighting futile war on terror. Militancy has spread far and wide and the militant elements are active throughout the Islamic world from Indonesia to Kazakhstan and Morocco to Turkey. Even from within USA and Europe, conversion to Islam and recruitment into Al-Qaeda is accelerating. Futile war on terror has started to have an adverse impact on US overall economy and some of the leading US banks have become bankrupt. Bush led neo-cons caused worst damage to US prestige and its economy. The British and NATO commanders in Afghanistan have opined that war in Afghanistan cannot be won through military means alone and have strongly advocated political settlement. Former US Gen McNeill stated that 400,000 troops were needed to quell insurgency in Afghanistan.
Contrary to US claims that it has won the Iraq war, Peter W. Galbraith opined that Iraq war failed to serve a single major US foreign policy objective. It has not made US safer; it has not advanced the war on terror; not made Iraq a stable state; not spread democracy to the Middle East; and has not enhanced access to oil. It has been a costly war. Same is true for Afghanistan.
According to a survey, some 60% of 3400 serving and retired senior officers of US military have opined that the US army afflicted with mental and physiological diseases is much weaker than it was six years ago. Russian military officers who had taken part in the Afghan war in 1980s are of the view that if Soviet Union with 160000 Soviet troops and 100,000 Afghan militia, enjoying the distinct advantage of geographic contiguity and with unaffected supply line could not defeat the Mujahideen, how could USA and NATO with 66000 troops and 75000 Afghan troops hope to win the war even if the troop level is beefed up? These ground realities have compelled the US leaders to rethink their strategy and to open dialogue with the Taliban. However, the option of use of force has not been given up.
Devoid of air support, gunship helicopters, tanks, APCs, artillery support and electronic means of surveillance or guidance, the Taliban and Al-Qaeda operatives imbued with the religious fervour and righteousness of their cause, are fighting an irregular warfare with puny resources with remarkable resilience and success. One of the principle reasons of their success is that the occupation forces have failed miserably in winning the support of the people. The puppet regimes of Hamid Karzai and Nouri Maliki have become highly unpopular and have been unable to restore semblance of order. The people of Afghanistan and Iraq detest their leaders and the presence of foreign troops on their soil who had justified their invasions under the false pretext of liberating the people from the cruel clutches of Taliban and Saddam led Baathist Party and ushering in democracy and bettering their lives.
Collateral damage to innocent civilians in Afghanistan is one of major factors that has provoked anti-US sentiments and ignited sympathy for Taliban. Even funeral processions and wedding parties have been bombed. The US pilots consider a mission accomplished if 1-2 militants are killed along with 50-60 innocent people. Afghan people who were wary of the Taliban are now flocking towards them in huge numbers. They have seen the ugly side of the Americans who kill and maim Afghans with ferocity and without any qualm of conscience. In Pakistan the situation is no different. Gen Musharraf, the blue-eyed boy of Bush was hated by Pakistanis; now Zardari is the most reviled person. Both are detested since they are viewed as American pawns serving US interests rather than interests of Pakistan. In FATA, the deathly drones have created fear psychosis and peaked anti-Americanism. The victims of drones are cut to pieces, their bodies charred, faces disfigured beyond recognition and their homes destroyed.
Obama has vowed to step up fight against extremism and a new strategy is underway to defeat extremists in Afghanistan-Pakistan. Although Obama has decided to beef up US military strength in Afghanistan by another 30000 from Iraq and 17000 are likely to arrive shortly, NATO allies are keen to withdraw their troops from Afghanistan rather than sending reinforcement. UK military commander in Afghanistan Brig Mark Carlton Smith admitted that US led allied forces are not going to win the war. French and German military commanders corroborated his views. It embarrassed US leadership prompting Robert Gates to quip that that there was no reason to be defeatist. Gates and Boucher who were part of Bush team are now guiding Obama to continue with policy of force. Accordingly, abrasive Richard Holbrooke has been nominated as Special Envoy to Pakistan-Afghanistan and expected to play a lead role in war on terror in the region.
Scott Ritter who was US Marine Corps intelligence officer from 1984-1991 and UN weapon inspector in Iraq from 1991-98, has given the pen-picture of Holbrooke. In his write up, Wrong man for the Job, Truth Dig - dated January 24, he says that Holbrooke championed military action against Afghanistan in September 2001, ruled out any role of diplomacy to deal with Taliban, labelled all Taliban as extremists, viewed Taliban and al-Qaeda as one and advocated removal of Taliban regime and destruction of al-Qaeda. He says that same war-monger is appointed by Hillary Clinton which is ill advised. Stated intention of Obama to increase size of US military presence in Afghanistan and to move forcefully gives an insight to US intentions that it desires to assert US-imposed security through continued military action in FATA. For Obama Administration, Holbrooke is the right man for the right job.
It is high time the Americans should come out of their world of fancy and start appreciating ground realities more dispassionately and objectively rather than relying on the worn out principle of might is right. By repeatedly saying that we are winning, they cannot convert defeat into victory. They cannot ignore the fact that their casualty rate in Afghanistan in 2008 was more than the total period from November 2001-2007. 72% of Afghanistan is now under the control of Taliban – up from 54% a year ago. Apart from their firm control in southern and eastern Afghanistan, their fighters have made deep inroads in western and north-western provinces north of Kabul. Even Kabul is besieged and out of four outlets, three are now compromised by Taliban activity. Only the northern road leading to Panjsher valley is safe for movement. 90 out of 400 districts of Afghanistan have been identified as high-risk areas. The Taliban are focussing their activities towards the main supply route through the south of country as well as all other supply routes. Supplies through Pakistan are getting complicated due to retaliations by the militants because of drone attacks.
The Taliban adopt asymmetric measures to offset NATO technical superiority. They do not have to coin battles; they only need to keep resisting, tire out and exhaust their opponents and cripple their economy. Gradually the focus of raids, bombings and kidnappings has shifted from outer perimeter towards the inner most perimeters around the centre of gravity residing in Kabul. Several daring raids have been conducted inside the Kabul city. Besides the Taliban and Al-Qaeda operatives, criminal elements have mushroomed giving severe jolts to security situation and causing migraine to ISAF forces. Economic costs are becoming prohibitive and US economy is in recession with little hope of recovery. The global recession has hit the economies of European countries as well. Time is not far when NATO troops would start withdrawing at their own and US troops would seek safe passage to exit.
USA can never hope to win war in Afghanistan if it sticks to flawed policies of Bush which failed to achieve any of the stated objectives and caused worst damage to USA, prefer force over dialogue, make no effort to provide them security, justice, rule of law, jobs and basic amenities to improve their lives, keep the great majority of Afghan Pashtuns on the sidelines, turn a blind eye to narcotic trade in Afghanistan which is spreading vices in Afghan society and funding militancy, go on distrusting, blaming and coercing Pakistan, continue depending upon the cunning advises of RAW, Mossad, CIA and pseudo think tanks. Obama and his team will have to think of novel ways based on sincerity of purpose and not on deception to avoid humiliating withdrawal as in the case of USSR. It has tried the instrument of force without achieving any results. Troop surge or creating a wedge between the extremist and moderate Pashtuns will not work in Afghanistan since time is on the side of the Taliban. Holbrooke is a wrong choice and must be replaced with a more humane person. Instead of reinforcing failure, why not try to win the hearts and minds of the people of Afghanistan. Stick should be sheathed and only carrots in plenty offered to win over the Afghans who have suffered hugely for decades. If Obama persists with policy of force under the misplaced hope of eliminating terrorism, things may spin out of control and unlike Soviet troops who could exit through Salang Pass under the control of Ahmad Shah Masud forces, US troops may find the northern supply and exit route blocked.
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