ISLAMABAD: President Asif Ali Zardari’s much-awaited address to the joint sitting of parliament on Saturday is more important for his own political survival than other issues and challenges he faces.
Unlike his last year’s address before embarking upon his first visit to the US, many important stakeholders, both the local and international, would be expecting him to execute his old promises instead of making new commitments to the political forces, after his recent but apparently temporary ceasefire.
Zardari probably has the last chance to establish before all the powerful players of the game that he was not the sole irritant anymore in the existing system and was ready to allow it to work.
His speech could force the powers that be to review their earlier inclination of applying the so-called Minus One formula, if he successfully convinces them that he had finally learnt his lessons and was ready to restore the balance between the presidency and the prime minister after the restoration of the chief justice.
Interestingly, this time, more than anyone else, Gilani would be more interested in his president’s speech to know whether Zardari was finally ready to return the sweeping powers taken away by the then-military dictator Gen Pervez Musharraf through the 17th Amendment. If President Zardari indulges in the old rhetoric of paying lip service to all the important issues, then Gilani would be the most disappointed man in the house and may not even hide his expressions of displeasure. The question in every mind today is whether Zardari would provide all those, who had agreed to give him a breathing space after the apparent arm twisting on the fateful morning of April 16, some reason to relax. But political sources revealed they did not expect Zardari to take bold initiatives in his speech although political parties, particularly the PML-N sitting on the opposition benches, would be expecting him to say something to justify their silence during his speech.
PML-N leaders have decided not to raise hue and cry despite having valid reasons to put the president on the mat, should they so want following the examples of Ghulam Ishaq Khan and Farooq Leghari in the 90s.
The change of heart appears to have come after telephone calls of David Miliband and Hilary Clinton, followed by the visit of Gilani to Raiwind, which played a major role in pushing the warring Nawaz Sharif and Zardari to a ceasefire for some time and bridge the gaps created since the Sharif brothers were disqualified. The PML-N leaders were said to be satisfied with the outcome of their long march, as they had achieved many goals with just one show of street power.
The show not only enabled them to take credit for forcing Zardari to lose face and subsequently restore the chief justice but Nawaz also managed to establish in the of eyes of the Western media and the new American government that he was a popular leader in Pakistan and they needed to deal with him instead of an unpopular leader like Zardari.
It seems in the presidency the restoration of the chief justice under pressure was not a big loss as compared to what Zardari had lost in terms of his own credibility in the eyes of the Americans, who were under the impression that he could deliver despite his falling popularity in the masses.
PML-N leaders appear ready to give another chance to Zardari to take the route of reconciliation and execution of the promises, particularly on the Charter of Democracy. The PML-N does not want to give an impression to both local and outside forces that the party only believes in politics of agitation. Such an impression might hurt its credentials in the eyes of powerful players of the game, who have played behind-the-scene roles at the time of restoration of the chief justice.
On another plane, the PML-N might not be interested in the announcement of Zardari to do away with his powers to dismiss the prime minister and his cabinet under the 58(2)b as they believe that now it is beyond his capacity, with free courts sitting in judgment, to use this power effectively.
The Sharif brothers would not get any benefit from removal of this clause in the near future. So for understandable reasons, any such announcement would make little material difference. The Sharif brothers are more interested in clauses like shifting of power from president to prime minister and most importantly to do away with the ban on becoming prime minister for the third time.
Those who know Zardari from close quarters do claim that he might not offer this concession to the two brothers riding high on public support. He believes that removal of this third time clause would further boost their chances to return to parliament with two-thirds majority in the next general elections, which were being predicted to be held most probably next year when Army chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani would still be around.
It is no more a secret that General Kayani and Nawaz Sharif were in constant touch through common friends and both had developed an understanding on major political issues. The evidence of this new relationship was given by columnist Irshad Ahmed Haqqani in his interview with a Seraiki TV channel when he said the president might be shown the door in the next six months as new mid-term elections would be held under the supervision of Gen Kayani, most probably in the middle of the next year.
In the light of these fresh political predictions about the future of President Zardari, many observers do rightly believe that this was his last chance to avert dangers to his rule and stop the Minus One formula. The multi-dollar question still remains: Is Zardari capable of doing this? The answer may come on Saturday afternoon.
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