MOSCOW: Afghanistan is "quite likely" to possess substantial oil and gas reserves, Dr. Stephen J. Blank, Research Professor at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army, says in his article Afghanistan’s Energy Future and Its Consequences.
According to his "latest" data, perspective natural gas reserves in northern Afghanistan could range from 3.6 to 36.5 trillion cubic feet, and oil from 0.4 to 3.6 billion barrels. The professor believes these hydrocarbon treasures may provoke pipeline competition in the region between the United States and Russia.
The best place to assess the authenticity of Dr Blank’s information is the All-Russia Research Institute for Geology of Foreign Countries, which can estimate the exploration of hydrocarbon reserves in northern Afghanistan, since Soviet geologists conducted a thorough study and assessment of reserves in the country’s northern provinces through geophysical and contact means (exploratory drilling) for decades.
The institute has confirmed that seven gas and six oil deposits have so far been discovered in Afghanistan. All the fields are part of the Kara Kum oil and gas basin in northern Afghanistan.
Gas reserves in the seven discovered fields amount to 5.120 trillion cubic feet, including 4.230 trillion of C1 (proved) reserves. Excluding produced gas, the country’s C1 reserves are estimated at 2.340 trillion cubic feet. Oil recoverables in the 6 operating fields are 0.91 billion barrels.
Stephen J. Blank himself doubts the authenticity of his data, especially the upper margin of his estimates. And these are relevant doubts. According to the All-Russia Research Institute for Geology of Foreign Countries, prospects for increasing proven hydrocarbon reserves in Afghanistan primarily depend on deep-hole drilling for 18 gas and nine oil prospects. The aggregate gas reserves on these prospects are assessed at just 5.429 trillion cubic feet, and the aggregate amount of oil recoverables is not significant either - 1.68 billion barrels.
Deep-hole drilling is not cheap, and requires hundreds of millions of dollars in investment. Precise conclusions can be drawn only after conducting such deep-hole drilling.
The Afghan Mining Ministry is aware of the statistics, since last November Russian geologists who attended the international exhibition Rebuild Afghanistan 2005, discussed the issue with the ministry’s officials. I happened to interpret their conversation.
Now back to the U.S. expert’s conclusions. Shall there be debates on the pipeline rivalry with Russia in Central Asia? It is true that provided the prospects for development and production of hydrocarbons in northern Afghanistan are good it will be necessary to find transportation routes across the country. Yet it will be expensive and dangerous to transport gas as it is from northern to southern areas of the republic across Afghan mountains. Gas export will be equally difficult.
The All-Russia Research Institute for Geology of Foreign Countries believes it will be easier to build thermal power plants in energy-rich northern Afghanistan and transport electricity from the north to the south, particularly since almost entire Afghanistan needs that. Energy will provide a boost for other industries. For example, there is a unique copper deposit, Ainak, south of Kabul. The deposit is ranked among the world’s six largest and needs stable energy supplies for its development
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The size of the oil and gas deposits in Afghanistan, in the Russian eyes, May be comparable to those of India and Pakistan if you go the the higher end of the estimates. But on the lower end and with realistics quantification as the Russian works usually turns out to be, the gas resources will be exhausted in two years time if you want to build a pipe line of the size( 1.5 trillion cubic feet per year) in planning stages from Iran to Pakistan and India.
And over the life time of gas deposits you can get a total of 350 million megawatt hour of power even through the most efficient gas to power plants of GE or others that run on 50 percent conversion rates at best and require 8000-10000 cubic feet of gas to generate one megawatt power.
Power generation from gas is becoming prohibitive as you can get better dollar of your gas by making Urea or plastics or petro chemicals. Pakistan has mega deposits of copper and copper winning of electrolytic produced copper is extremely power intensive. Since Pakistan has not run into tens of billions of dollars as development capital to develope its second largest coal reserves in the world, Pakistan is simply sending its copper ore concentrates to China for elecrolytic winning of copper through cheap coal generated power.
Afghanistan could transport the gas in smaller diameter pipe lines that could be economical to transport gas around or even to NWFP.But, Afghanistan's biggest problem for thousands of years is to get stabilized. Americans and Nato are now trying on it after Alexander the Great, Chengez Khan, the Turks, the Arabs, the Brits, the Russians or any body else you name tried and declared it the toughest nut impossible to crack. The Americans are trying it now. Let us get our fingers crossed and wait if the history's biggest puzzle gets solved by them or it follows the same rejection routes of history.
Afghanistan's immediate neighbour to the north Tajikistan does not need power as it already has one of the biggest hydro power generation infrastructure left over from now much shut down alluminum smelting, which is the most power intensive industry. The Russians left behind in Tajikistan the largest alluminum smelting complex in the world and even Canada's Alcan or America's Alcoa used to envy that complex, when i used to work in Alluminum Company Of Canada(Alcan).
Certainly, there are economic thrills to chuckle on in a country, where you are fighting a war.The business men of the west were dying to let their goods passed in rush to Russia through war zone during world war two, right on the moment Hitler had already attacked Russia.
The Russians discovered and lost those not so big reserves of oil and gas, just to continue the information on to the ones who replaced them.Only Allah knows what comes next in Afghanistan and who,through if ever far beyond, makes those projects work in the country that loves the guns above any thing else. Good luck America with a financial pipe dream about Afhanistan.
I think the west and America in particular should pour money there to stabilize the country. Military and guns may not solve Afghan's problem as they need something different than guns to get stabilized and America and the west has lots of money to do the job by means other than guns and war.
The country is, has allways been, and will forever stay on the confluence of the global stretegy of power prowess. Any big power prowess of the history, trying to ignore it, got it even worse than 9/11. Empires have been lost over Afghanistan and the world is crying over twin towers of New York.Afghans don't do big damage to outsiders as they have no time out from in fighting.
No other great empire in history tamed Afghans better than the Mughals.They flooded the country with prosperity, kept only communications through intelligence and intermarried with Afghans. That is why much of the wealth from central Asia and India found its way to Kabul and every body was happy including Mughals.But nothing deterred the Afghans from in-fighting.Moghul era Afghans can be lyricized as such:
Afghans were so happy
No foreigner in sight
But all amongst them all
Had their guns to fight
With money and the pleasure
And far much delight
They still kept on robbing
And fighting on site
They wont take advise
And You can't be rude
Or else watch your neck
And there starts the feud
You know, it aint joke
Nor it is so funny
You just give them goodies
you just give them money
No one can control them
No military, no cop
And fighting in their blood
That no one can stop
The rich or the poor
The short and the tall
The fighting is must
For them, that is all Posted by Anwar Mahmood, Canada
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