Post Election Scenario
08 May, 2013
By Muqtedir Akhtar Shabir
General elections are scheduled to take place on 11th of May. Everyone is speculating the results. Some may forecast the result one way and some may forecast the result other way. One thing appears to be certain, that next political era will be of coalition governments in National Assembly and Provincial Assemblies. Election campaign was a difficult and eventful process. Two political parties were holding 3 to 4 election rallies every day while other political parties are either forced to hold corner meeting or tactfully not holding large public gathering.
Be as it may, lets analyze the post election scenario.
As per law, Article 91 sub article 2 of the Constitution of Pakistan, General House of the assemblies will be deemed to be called to elect its leader of the house on 21st day of holding of the election date, unless it is summoned by the president earlier. Earlier it was always discretion of the president to call the general house meeting and it was sometimes delayed for months. It is not so under new law.
The important question is, whether any party will take a simple majority in any assembly or all parties will fall short of simple majority in the respective assemblies and will be reduced to make coalition governments in respective assemblies.
The role of the masses will come to an end on the polling day , in post election scenario political wizards will play an important role in formation of the governments in the respective assemblies. To make and run coalition government may be a difficult task as mentioned in proviso of Article 92 of the Constitution, the number of ministries in the nation assembly and provincial assemblies are reduced to 11% of the strength of the Assembly. This means that there will be not enough ministries to offer to the coalition partners. There is a great public demand to give good governance. There will be a great public pressure on the next government which may have to tackle daunting task of fighting with the energy crises, law and order situation, terrorism, corruption etc.
Coalition governments in province of Punjab and National Assembly will play an important role in future political coalitions in the country. One party forming the government in the Punjab may have to compromise in the National Assembly with its coalition partners to form a government and they may have to either give provincial Chief Minister to coalition partner or if they want to retain Punjab Chief Ministership they may have to give premiership to its coalition partner.
One must not forget that presidential election is also scheduled to take place at the end of this year. That factor may also play a very critical role in comprises among different political forces and this factor may also play a very important role in formation of political understanding amongst the political forces. The forth coming presidential election may expose many political allies or rivals in near future.
Staunch stances and aggressive political speeches may also play another factor in conciliation among the political forces of the country and it may be a hurdle to sit together in a post election scenario. Hopefully politician will be mature enough for the betterment of the country and will concentrate on the real issue faced by the country and will not dwell on their political differences.
In the end one must say that there may be a lot of political comprises, to run the next coalition government. Nevertheless, one may be mindful of the fact that public pressure to solve the different and difficult issue will be playing a boiling factor to the political management of the country. One may suggest that term of the assembly may be reduce to 4 years to get better performance of the assemblies. It may act as a public pressure on the political parties to face the public with 4 years, it will be motivating factor to show performance and give good governance.