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Of states, war and Iran

10 March, 2007

By Muhammad Ahsan Yatu


War the ultimate destruction

State regarding internal affairs is either wise or unwise, nothing more, nothing less. It invokes morality if needed. Wisdom requires the state to be considerate most of the time and occasionally tough. To elaborate it we begin with our own examples. “It is not 1970s; they will not know what has hit them”, so said General Pervaiz Musharraf about the Baloch rebels. Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti was the most prominent among hundreds who have been hit since then. Hitting is still going on and consequently the hatred against the state is going up. After the military operation in East Pakistan whomsoever one would talk to about the negative repercussions, likely disintegration of Pakistan, the response that would come used to be terrible: we would keep Pakistan united even if we had to exterminate half of Bengali population. Result: half of Pakistan separated.

Had our state been wise it would have given financial autonomy to East Pakistan. It could have avoided war, defeat and separation. Balochistan must be given financial autonomy to avoid another catastrophe. Weren’t the Bengalis being exploited since the beginning? Aren’t the Baloch the losers in the federation? What our state does is that it chooses military options where dialogue and compromises are needed, as it did with the Bengalis and is doing with the Baloch; and makes compromises where toughness is required, as it did with the Taliban in Waziristan. Had the North not waged a war against the South on the question of slavery, the US would not have been the super power today. It would have been like one more Canada in the continent of America.

State regarding outside affairs is a larger entity. Besides, wise or unwise, it is weak or strong, and dependent or independent also. In inter-state relations morality is rarely invoked. Here too toughness and cooperation guided by wisdom form the basis of relationship. However, the weak states even if they are wise often have limited choice. The strong states even if stupid dominate. The massacre of the Indians by the forces of Ahmed Shah Abdali, Nadir Shah and East India Company are examples from not so old Indian history. India during those times was a weak state. However, after 1857 the British and the Indians acted wisely and did not fight with each other. It benefited both, and the Indians ultimately got independence peacefully.

How the Germans butchered the Polish, the French, the Hungarians, the Slovaks and many more is a European example. The weak states had no way out but to submit. An advancing Germany on the other hand should have stopped somewhere and entered into a dialogue.  It should have avoided elongation of war that it had come to know it would finally lose. And that it did not and powerful states, The US and the USSR, joined its opposition and defeated and destroyed it. How the Japanese killed the Koreans and the Chinese, and the US used atomic bombs in Hiroshima and Nagasaki are the terrible Asian examples. Japan could have remained away from the great confrontation. That it did not and that was not wise on the part of the Japanese state. However, after the war Both Germany and Japan cooperated with the US and are reaping the harvest of wisdom. The US should not have resorted to that degree of toughness against Japan. Japan had already surrendered and there was no need of displaying beastliness through nuclear bombardment. Yet, the beastliness is a part of mankind’s evolutionary or ‘intelligently designed’ structure, and it some times comes out in a big way to express itself; needed or not is a subsequent question.

Will Iran be attacked is a decades old question. The US would do it the moment it is convinced that Iran would not abandon its nuclear weapon programme. Isolated as Iran is today, the US would not seek the UN approval. The UN’s observations that the sanctions are not working would be taken as a sufficient reason. Despite Iran’s isolation the people world over including the Americans themselves would not endorse the invasion. But, would it matter?  The American ruling establishment including the opposition is united against Iran’s nuclear enrichment business; hence for Iran there is no chance of opting for a North Korean style action.

The North Koreans tested nuclear bomb for a different purpose. They needed energy, food and capital. They were seeking a bargaining edge. The Americans knew about their intentions and also about their limited capabilities. Hence, the explosion was ignored and post-explosion agreement is under consideration. Iran on the other hand would remain for a long time an energy surplus country. It can buy whatever it needs through sale of oil and gas. Hence, if Iran’s quest for nuclear energy is seen by the Americans also for conversion to the atomic weaponry, there is logic in it, if not truth. Iran’s non-cooperation with the IAEA extends the logic even to the extent of truth. Given the nuclear enrichment capacity of Iran, a possibility of hundreds of nuclear bombs being added to its arsenal exists. The poor North Korea perhaps detonated all of its enriched uranium during the test. It is a case similar to the one of Pakistan and India.  They tested their enriched material collected over decades and returned to conventional things soon after. Poor nations have limits. Even the Chinese nuclear programme related to defence is not seen as a big threat, even by the Indians.

Iran’s case is different through one more angle.  Iran has openly and so many times expressed its deep hatred against the very existence of Israel as a country. Not only that, Iran has also been supporting Hezbollah and Hamaas financially as well as through supplies of arms. The US blaming it for supporting Shiites militancy in Iraq is another point in the charge sheet. Iran, moreover, is an ideological state and is full of emotional charge. Combine its richness, capabilities to acquire hundreds of nuclear bombs, hatred for Israel, hard-line ideology and posture of self-righteousness, the resulting entity makes Iran a suspect in the eyes of the Americans who have very high stakes not only in the oil rich region, but also the world over. A war, intentional or accidental, between Israel and Iran would bring disaster not only to the region but also to entire world. It is because of the most sacred places of the Muslims and others that are located in the region. Israel being a small country as compared to its neighbours and Iran cannot sustain a nuclear attack; it will be destroyed totally. So to save itself it would use whatever it has including 400 to 2000 nuclear warheads. A nuclear showdown of that kind would be sudden; hence intervention from others would not be possible. The neighbours of Iran including Pakistan are not ignoring the possibility of such occurrence. General Pervaiz Musharraf’s efforts backed by important Muslim majority countries to convince Iran on nuclear restraint regime were timely. 

 In case Iran chooses to remain on the nuclear path, the US is prepared and the war strategy has already been chalked out. It is certain that it will not be a war like the ones of Afghanistan and Iraq. The level of preparation as being told and seen reflects that the Americans this time would display their full strength. Required number of aircraft carriers and thousand of cruise missile would be available to the US forces in less than a month.  This Gulf war would be unique in modern times. The American navy would be in the forefront supported by the reinforcements coming from the near by bases.

The Americans may destroy all that connects a country and nation. Devastation of communication systems and economically and politically relevant areas would top their hit list.  Change of government and redefining of political system including turning Iran into a confederation are post-war agendas of the US. What is worrisome is that the beastliness of man may again come out to show its maximum. While the Israel-Iran nuclear war is a probability, the US using nuclear bombs is a possibility. Almost all war analysts are taking about it. Given the discourse of Richard Armitage on the Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan wars, and linking them with the pre and post-WW II Germany and Japan, the world should prepare itself for the bad days ahead. Iran must turn to wisdom. It is a poor and a disturbed country despite its huge oil reserves. And it has no enemies other than the ones of its own imagination.  It should spend oil income on internal development and not on the military paraphernalia that it does not need and is making it vulnerable too. Iran can live, better, without a nuclear bomb. Today it has a choice. Tomorrow it would be a different story.

Reader Comments:

Your Credentials please.

What do you think your credentials are to make the above statements? Could you point to some source for your information? Have you done any research on the above matters?

Vickram, Hungary - 10 March, 2007

war and Iran

Why nations go for having nuclear weapons. Why US and Russia got huge piles of nuclear weapons and missiles in large numbers? India got Nuclear Weapons, China got it, Pakistan got it, Israel got it and there are so many other nations who got nuclear weapons. If they are not worried about being attacked why should they spend so much money to have nuclear weapons or other conventional weapons. Fear of being attacked is too bad and anyone who is sleeping will be too late for him when war is imposed on that country. Iran got the right to have nuclear weapons same like others and do have a right to civilian nuclear technology as well. Its not what others got it. Its the need of OIL what US is worried and planning ahead of 50 years to make sure they got sufficient OIL to run their industries etc. Republic of China the other week did shoot down their obsolete sattelite which was 500 miles away from ground. Countries do have some defenses but US being got more than others does not know that they will not just walk into other countries and get no resistance. Iraq was a failure on Saddam's part who was foolish enough not to prepare himself and had war with Iran for more than 7 years followed by sanction for 12 years. Leaders of Iran are democratically elected and they have their people united if any unforeseen time comes up will find that country ready to take on. I that US will attack Iran as seen from the Media its a retreat on the part of US and their Generals will resign if asked to attack Iran. Gen. Musharraf is a wise man and what happened in succession of East Pakistan it was ought to happen being apart so many miles and with a problem of language etc. Baluchistan is within the country and very important Province of Pakistan. A State within a State is never allowed and anyone who plays with the law will be punished harshly. There are a few elements who are trying in Baluchistan but they will fail same as Akbar Bugti who ended his life in such a way which is a pitty and deplorable. It is infidality to go against your own country who gave you so much. Its time that US do understand that other nations got the right to live in this planet earth.

mohammad, United Arab Emirates - 10 March, 2007

Annihilation of Iran to wrap up Islam

Iran has 68,700,000 (Jan 2007) Population. Nuke Power Plant by Iran makes no difference what USA Canada EU Israel and India Japan or Oil Sheiks trying to achieve.
Iran is heart of Islam. Iran can be invaded physically. Either Islam survives or Sheiks
Survive. If Sheik survives then Muslim will be slaughtered. Attempt will be made to
Convert Muslim into Hindus Christian Jews Buddhist via Canadian _UK bills,
Tribunal’s car loans insurance bank loans with entire oil under their control amid appointments of Human rights Offices Ombudsman tribunal Judges Gimmick.

Since 1858 Israel and sheiks came into existence with Ottoman Turkey Empire
Invaded Armenia Yugoslavia Iraq Afghanistan Turkmenistan positioned for
Invasion of Iran slaughtering amid High rise towers in Dubai Abu Dhabi Muscat
Oman built. Kuwait is Bush oil Iraq oil gulf oil taken. However, Persian Gulf water
Is a buffer zone 200 km x 600 km with 100 km state of hormuz entrance?
Gulf of Oman begins with buffer of 100km x130 km and 200 kmx200 km.
Tehran –nowshr-Qom has Caspian Sea Buffer zone 300Km x300 Km sandwiched
Between Azerbaijan Baku oil and Turkmenistan. Rest of Iran has border with
Pakistan 300Km Afghanistan 350 km Turkmenistan 400Km Iraq 500 km
Turkey 250 km and Armenia 50 km (deliberately created with potential 50 km more)
100 Km Kuwait has buffer zone with bushehr Abadan 200 Km.


If Iran is invaded Saudia Arabia UAE to morocco will be cut off .Other side of Iran
Will be Pakistan Afghanistan which will be taken over by India and may be by even
China for Iran oil greed. To Invade Iran physically seems Impossible. In pursuit to kill
Islamic Umma Islam with total control of oil Umma will be attacked by bombs and
Missiles. To prevent Muslim attacking Italy France EU and India, Israel of Jews
Of no fixed address (bulk) will have to take blame to pull the trigger create massive
Bombardment death and destruction to keep away India Israel Buddhist and Christian
Into trouble. For this came Bible Torah Islam .Shia still do mattaam for Sunni waging
War on the household of Holy prophet who created Umma to safeguard lives of UMMA.

With above lay out Bush allied can kill entire shia religion and install Hinduism
Buddhism anarchism with slaughter of entire Muslim Population around the globe.
This can only be done by using 26000 Nuke bomb of USA allied Israel and India.


zmb, Hungary - 10 March, 2007

Off things related to Iran and an old topic of BDesh

Dear Yatu sahib,

Nicely written essay and good advice to Iran. I couldn't agree more on this. Iran is a $30 billion a year budget country. Yet it wants to take on Israel ($75 billion budget) and America ($2500 billion budget). That is like Iran is a tiddi (a cockroach) trying to take on some big elephants.

It is time for Iranians to realize their size and position and rethink the strategy. There is no strategy better than to use the available resources on development. So called democratic Iran has done poorer job on its economy compared to even tiny Arab kingdoms mired in old tribalism.

However I disagree with your stance on Bangladesh.

It is wrong to assume that Pakistan would have let go of its territory willingly. It never happened in the past and will never happen in the future. Any country with an iota of military power will force its writ within its boundaries regardless of the cost and outcome.

BDesh fiasco happened when Lefties and socialists ganged up on pro-Western leadership of Pakistan. Off all the characters like Bhutoo, Mujib, Indira, and Yahya, every single one was a leftie except Yahyha.

So we lost to lefties and socialists and not to some big time Bangla ideology. The situation is clear 35 years after the sad times of 1971. Bangladesh economy is now even in poorer shape as it was compared to the years before 1971. They have much lower income and much higher debt now. Look at the recent budgets and see that BDesh earns less than half of Pakistan while borrowing same or higher amounts every year.

So Mujib's statements on "economic exploitation" by the West were simply leftie and socialist propaganda hyped up its fellow Hindu-socialist Indira, and Islamo-socialist Bhutto.

What we should have done back then was to become outsourcing hub for America and Japan back in the 1950s. We were so close to the USA and we didn't utilize the relationship to the fullest extent. Military did the right thing by following the free-market West, but our bureaucrats and thinkers failed us as they followed communists and socialists.

I’ll give just one example. GM motors of USA had offered to set up a parts/assembly plant in Karachi. This was way before outsourcing became fashionable. Unfortunately our socialist bureaucrats spurned GM and went with simple kit-assembly from Leyland or Bedford trucks.

Thanks to the socialists policies and the resulting lack of funds created poverty for everything including our military, and our provinces. That scarcity of money was then exploited by lefties and the result came out to be terrible.

Even now Baloch and Frontier problem is less of ethnic or religious and more of economic problem. Baloch "rebels" are the same old communists. FATA is chained to Arab militants via "rent money".

Pakistan is spending an abysmal $20 billion an year while our dreams and hopes supersede those of the developed European countries. On the other hand Turkey is NATO member and it has been able to increase its spending all the way to $120 billion a year. This is all the while when Turks have very similar labor strengths as those of Pakistanis. Then why can they spend 6 times the Pakistani budget, and 4 times the budget of Iran? Just one reason! They are part of the NATO block and they know how to outsource their services better than Pakistanis.

So it is time for all of us to accept every outsourcing offer from the West be it civil, or military and bring home the money. It is time we followed our great leader Gen. Ayub's policies towards development and economy. No one can argue against the prosperous times of Gen. Ayub Khan, not even his socialist enemies. In his time we were members of CETO and CENTO. As those organizations have been replaced by NATO, we should immediately apply for the membership of NATO and make sure we increase our budget to $150 billion as soon as possible.

If Kazakhstan and Turkey can be members of NATO, why not us? We have bigger and better trained military that can serve the purposes of peace and prosperity. Our motto should always remain the same as it was in the time of Ayub Khan “Prosperity at home and peace in the world”.



Dr. Qazi, United Kingdom - 10 March, 2007

dear sir
you say,iran can,t sustain a nuclear attack.i dont think any counrty can. not even the european countrys.even if iran stoped thair nuclear program isreal and the usa would attack iran on a later date becouse of oil and gas just like they did with irag. muslims should unit weather shia or sunni unity is important to pass this time of difficulty togather.one should heed lessons of past history salhudin only won al quds becouse thair was unity in the muslims at the time.let me stress if iran is attacked pakistan also will be attacked and soon after saudi arabia will be taken over with out a fight this is why the saudis should play a leading roll to end these crises,mr yatu iran is not alone. the usa isreal are alone what do you think russia,china,vietnam,germany,japan are friends of usa many other countrys seek vengance from the usa.just like any empire its time for the usa to fall or sink.

mr yatu just becouse isreal has 200 to 2000 nuclear warheads that dont mean isreal is untouchable the way i see it is if syria lebanon and palstine hits isreal together with missles and followed by ground attack and then seizes control of nuclear missle sites that would put the lid on isreal.

mr yatu iran has short to long range misssles if iran attacks it must attack usa bases in irag and afganstan and stations its special forces with the iragi miltia loyal to iran out side bases just waiting for the us army runing out to avoid the iranien missle attacks and same go,s for afganistan with the help of taliban.

the battle ships should be hit at the same time at alcost.also at the same time open a new front in south amrica and strike the usa mainland the key is strike first.be on the offencive not on the defencive

mr yatu no point biulding citys if you can,t defened them




zahid, Pakistan - 11 March, 2007

Easier said than done


The author has presented an objective & rational picture of the Iranian crisis but I'd say it's easier said than done. If all(individuals as well as nation states) were to stop fearing each other & start living in harmony with mutual love & trust, this world would turn into heaven even before I finish typing this comment. However, the reality is that fear begets fear. The more fearful a nation is, the more is its defence spending. Fear is not easily overcome by individuals as well as by the nation states.

This reminds me of the famous problem in Game theory called the 'Prisoners' Dilemma' where two prisoners end up getting the longest sentences because of the fear of each other & inability to cooperate with each other. This world is suffering from the Prisoners' dilemma. Be it the US, Iran, Iraq, India, China or Pakistan. Moreover it's easier for the author to say that Iran has no enemies while Pakistan has many. The fact is that today, Pakistan has more internal threats than external ones. It risks an implosion rather than an explosion.

Billions of dollars are spent every single day on armed forces around the world. A single day's budget of the world armed forces is enough to eradicate Malaria from this planet. But millions of people continue to die from this easily preventable, curable & eradicable disease for want of funds & resources. Welcome to the real world.

Karan Thapar, Hungary - 11 March, 2007

lets pray for peace

where are all the sane leaders of world, there certainly are not in washington or tehran ,bush and ahmednijad can both fight themselves and let the millions of people who will die in thier stupid war alone

Darren, Pakistan - 11 March, 2007

“It is not 1970s; they will not know what has hit them”, said Musharaff

“It is not 1970s; they will not know what has hit them”, said Musharaff. You cannot imagine what has been said and is being done amid building road blocks by
Surrounding army gathered since 1970s.Main stream of few is going in reverse time
Travel. Bush is flirting Brazil Wood Forest using term “Ethanol” while preparing for
Ultimate destruction of Islam via co-conspirators who are attempting to defraud Islam. There is nothing worse than Kufr and denial of basic rights or basic daily living.
Even USA said:” in pursuit to liberty freedom and happiness and normal professional
Development”.

If few individual of main stream have declared themselves God Vishnu or Reincarnated Prophet holding other individual in court since 1970s hoping time travel will put them ahead 50 yrs when earth moves 300 km every day.

Kafur hypocorism and disbelief is root cause of evil in pursuit to create Armageddon with total destruction Of Iran Islam. Unfortunately entire army of Nato Israel India EU besides
Preparing seem to have done short cut since 1970s.They are building own career by with
Holding other in extreme denial using security method:”i.e. they will not know what has hit them governing law of nature inaccurately as if monotheism god himself”. Amid lies
Distortion Gas station researchers builders distributors should be arrested for being architect of Armageddon at the cost of individual held prisoner since 1970s.


mohammed_z, Bahrain - 12 March, 2007

this is just a responce to mr zmb(india) and Mr zahid (pakistan). of all the columnists on this site mr yatu writes the most impartial articals. whereas you guys ar living in a make belif world, zahid is planning to eliminate usa and and zmb is suffering from acute paranoia. i can undestand resentment against usa due to their miltary anf foriegn policy but can someone tell why are muslims in sudan, pakistan and iraq killing each other. is it not hunger for power and sectarianism fueling the killings in iraq and pakiistan and aren't there racial motivations in sudan because there are arab muslims killing black muslims? what is the reason for the genoscide and violence in these areas? pakistan and india have fought four wars over kashmir and are also willing to have a nuclear showdown for it. in the last 60 years pakistan has lost territory and is at the verge of losing more. gunships and armoured vehicals are being used by pakistan agains its own population, how can pakistan treat kashmir right if this is the treatment being meted by their own countrymen who if i may add are muslims. usa, israel, europe, india or china are not the enemy of islam, its the muslims themselves who are posing the biggest threat to it. and for crying out loud buddhism's preaches non violence in any form and is the only religion in the world along with hinduism which has spread without any use of force. thanx

hindukush, Hungary - 14 March, 2007

Hindukush analysing zmb " Annihilation of Iran ..."

Mr Hindu kush ,

Commons supported plans to renew the UK's nuclear submarine system ,Tony Blair had said it was "essential" the UK began the £20bn plan alongwith Britain, France, the United States, China and Russia - the five permanent members of the Security Council created successfully Iran sanctions (like Iraq) for Iran possessing WMD Nuke Power Plant .This need Invasion ( in not too Distant future). Looking into close advisors of Bush Blair Harper and others I wonder if resembling Taliban Mujahediin means sectarian
Killing by Muslim against Muslim for OIL .


zmb, Hungary - 15 March, 2007

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